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Q3'23: The Great Re-Financing

The U.S. government's upcoming maturity wall and reckless spending behavior set up a reflexive loop for long-term interest rates to push higher. Meanwhile, the roll-off of government pandemic support programs may be a knock-out blow for the U.S. consumer, who is already struggling to keep up with persistent inflation.

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Q1'2023: Pick your Poison

The reversal of the credit cycle is prompting deflation. Meanwhile, Western agendas to re-shore manufacturing, re-arm national defense, and complete the energy transition are structurally inflationary. Maybe we'll have both.

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Q4'22: A World at War

The global superpower conflict is well underway via political, economic, and financial warfare. Western sovereign debt loads are being weaponized, and central banks will soon be forced to reload their printers.

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Q3'22: Hurricane Powell

Monetary and fiscal policy are at odds in the fight against inflation - meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is driving liquidity issues in the world's most important market: U.S. Treasuries.

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