Our Perspectives

A faint-hearted Federal Reserve re-opens the door for inflation as it bends the knee to the world's most frivolous spender - the U.S. Treasury.

Artificial Intelligence has been the driving force of this narrow market. A look underneath the hood of AI - past, present, and future.

A bifurcated America has given rise to populist America: a government spending machine moving baseline inflation structurally higher. Meanwhile, gold's recent breakout is a signpost of the evolving global monetary system.

Deficit spending came to the rescue in 2023 - though, more debt at higher interest rates continues to be a dangerous cocktail that might generate a 2024 hangover.

The U.S. government's upcoming maturity wall and reckless spending behavior set up a reflexive loop for long-term interest rates to push higher. Meanwhile, the roll-off of government pandemic support programs may be a knock-out blow for the U.S. consumer, who is already struggling to keep up with persistent inflation.

A look underneath the hood of this year's market rally and corresponding complacency despite a clouded horizon.

The reversal of the credit cycle is prompting deflation. Meanwhile, Western agendas to re-shore manufacturing, re-arm national defense, and complete the energy transition are structurally inflationary. Maybe we'll have both.

The global superpower conflict is well underway via political, economic, and financial warfare. Western sovereign debt loads are being weaponized, and central banks will soon be forced to reload their printers.

Monetary and fiscal policy are at odds in the fight against inflation - meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is driving liquidity issues in the world's most important market: U.S. Treasuries.

Navigating a global energy crisis and Fed-induced recession in the upside-down economy

The possibility and probability of a new global monetary regime and its implications in the wake of geopolitical conflict.

Our note to clients on recent market volatility.

Why Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are walking a fine line and the discounts on "Growth".

How passive indexing is shaping market structure and helping take Tesla to Mars.

Say hello to financial repression, and why oil may be a key driver to watch in the inflation debate.

Will Treasury holders need a page out of the Reddit playbook? Some thoughts on rates, inflation, leverage, SPACs, and more.

A look back at macro and structural variables in 2020, their impact on the markets, and what to watch in 2021.