Will the TACO shell break? Markets remain sanguine about Trump's tariff agenda and the coordinated isolation of China. Meanwhile, out with DOGE, in with the "BBB", as the administration opens the financial repression playbook.
President Trump is playing a very dangerous hand of poker, hoping no one calls his bluff. Tariff threats are the stick; the carrot is perhaps a grand security-based deal amongst allies. The outlandish calculations have ruffled many foreign feathers; can he walk it back without permanent damage?
Risk assets feast off liquidity, which was amply supplied in 2023 and 2024 by a stealth Fed and Treasury. However, 2025 might take away the punch bowl for the time being.
A faint-hearted Federal Reserve re-opens the door for inflation as it bends the knee to the world's most frivolous spender - the U.S. Treasury.
Artificial Intelligence has been the driving force of this narrow market. A look underneath the hood of AI - past, present, and future.
A bifurcated America has given rise to populist America: a government spending machine moving baseline inflation structurally higher. Meanwhile, gold's recent breakout is a signpost of the evolving global monetary system.
Deficit spending came to the rescue in 2023 - though, more debt at higher interest rates continues to be a dangerous cocktail that might generate a 2024 hangover.
The U.S. government's upcoming maturity wall and reckless spending behavior set up a reflexive loop for long-term interest rates to push higher. Meanwhile, the roll-off of government pandemic support programs may be a knock-out blow for the U.S. consumer, who is already struggling to keep up with persistent inflation.
A look underneath the hood of this year's market rally and corresponding complacency despite a clouded horizon.
The reversal of the credit cycle is prompting deflation. Meanwhile, Western agendas to re-shore manufacturing, re-arm national defense, and complete the energy transition are structurally inflationary. Maybe we'll have both.
The global superpower conflict is well underway via political, economic, and financial warfare. Western sovereign debt loads are being weaponized, and central banks will soon be forced to reload their printers.
Monetary and fiscal policy are at odds in the fight against inflation - meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is driving liquidity issues in the world's most important market: U.S. Treasuries.
Navigating a global energy crisis and Fed-induced recession in the upside-down economy
The possibility and probability of a new global monetary regime and its implications in the wake of geopolitical conflict.
Our note to clients on recent market volatility.
Why Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are walking a fine line and the discounts on "Growth".
How passive indexing is shaping market structure and helping take Tesla to Mars.
